July 21 and 22 trades

PSEi was trying to mimic how Dow behaved--lots of choppiness. Both markets were experiencing some toppish signals as evidenced by lower value turnover despite in an upward trend. PSEi is yet to test the recent high of 2,626, while the Dow was already testing 8,900-ish.

PSEi was up by 19 points today to 2,612 and was led (again) by Lopez stocks, mainly MER and First Philippine Holdings (FPH), which registered a whopping Php162 million and Php60 million worth of net foreign buying, respectively. Total market turnover of Php2.8 billion was a little bit wanting for me. This just meant that there were lesser aggressive buyers today than yesterday or last week as we are approaching the resistance. Breadth was still good though with the advancers outnumbering the decliners 85 to 33 with 55 unchanged. We were net foreign buying overall of Php162 million today (MER coincidence?).

MER closed 199 today on huge volume after hitting a high of 200. Rumor mill was speculating that Ramon S. Ang (RSA, for short), president of San Miguel Corp. (SMC/B), might be enticed now to sell its MER holdings to MVP at this "spectacular" price. :)

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I got my documentary stamp tax refund today, which added 1.5% to my year-to-date return. :)

I realized that I was whipsawed by LC the other day (refer to my previous post) after massive selling by Felipe Yap-associated brokers. So I bought this back up at a much higher cost of 0.245 instead. :( But at least I was able to ride this one. It broke out of 0.25 resistance today confirming the flag pattern (resistance was also the 100-week moving average). LC closed today at 0.28 resistance on big volume. I expect this to hurdle this resistance tomorrow barring any unforeseen circumstances. Refer to my technical analysis below (click to enlarge):

LC daily:



LC weekly (cup and handle pattern still intact):



The holding firm that I was monitoring (refer to my previous post) was a bit shy these two days. It might test previous resistance first to confirm breakout. I'll keep my eye on this one.

I also bought a ton of NiHAO Mineral Resources (NI) the other day at 8.6 due to strength and breakout from previous resistance of 8.5. I'm still holding onto this one today. We might taste some wall on the 10th to 11.5th floors.

NI daily:



I disposed off more than 50% of my holdings of MEGA-heavy MEG at 1.08 to transfer some to Alliance Tuna (TUNA) at 1.62. Macquarie seems still has a lot of bullets to pepper hapless MEG investors like me. :( Selling to buy MER and FPH? Macquarie were top buyers of these two today (this broker was associated to MVP before. Hmm...). Buying of TUNA was based purely on breakout of 1.60 strong resistance. But we might experience some selling towards 1.68-1.70 as seen in the chart below:

TUNA daily:



I'm still holding on to the rest of my holdings. PAX looks interesting. I expect this to erupt soon as there were signs of accumulation on going. :)

Composition:
NI = 27%
PAX = 16%
TUNA = 13%
MEG = 13%
LC = 11%
WEB = 11%
Odd-lots = 3%
*I broke my cardinal rule of not to hold more than 5 stocks at a time. I guess I'm just bullish (for now). :)

Portfolio invested: 95%
Cash: 5%

July 14 trades

Dow Jones jumped by 2.3% to 8,332 last night on positive remarks by analysts on the financial sector. Could this have negated the head and shoulders pattern (neckline was 8,200)?

PSEi tried to follow suit reaching a high of 2,514 mid-trading day, but people were on "sell-on-rally" mode once again. Index hit a low of 2,484 before closing just 9 points higher than yesterday to 2,492. Some excitement brought to us by Lepanto Mining Corp. (LC/LCB) due to "revived" rumors of Manny Pangilinan's (MVP) buy-in. LC and LCB shot up by 29% and 25%, respectively, on big volume particularly LC. Wealth Securities (code: 269) was the biggest buyer of the said securities today. Sympathy play trickled in to the rest of Felipe Yap stocks (Manila Mining [MA/MAB]) and other mining issues as well.

We saw today also the block trade of MER amounting to Php20 billion, which was the block purchased by MVP from the Lopezes at Php90 per share.

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I dumped BPC and SMCB today at a minimal loss because I think they were toppish. But I was whipsawed once again, this time by BPC. :( Some big buying by Macquarie and Regis on BPC brought it to close on its high at 2.42! Sigh. :( Thank God, I was able to hitch a significant portion of my portfolio on LC. :D It closed on its high at 0.225 (bid price) with gargantuan volume. I expect this to gap up tomorrow and continue its ascent. Technical analysis of LC below (click to enlarge):

Daily:


Weekly:


We can expect some resistance towards 0.25 then 0.28. Weekly Cup and Handle pattern points to 0.36.

I'm still holding on to WEB and PAX. Technical analysis of WEB and PAX below (click to enlarge):

WEB Daily:


WEB Weekly:


WEB broke out from 0.0525 the other day. Price target is 0.06 to 0.0625 based on uptrend channel and weekly Cup and Handle pattern.

PAX Daily:


I'm disappointed with PAX to be honest though this is still within the pennant pattern. Bolliger bands are contracting, which is a sign that a major move is coming soon. Bull or bear? That's the question.

Composition:
LC = 21%
WEB = 13%
PAX = 11%
Odd-lots = 4%

Portfolio invested: 49%
Cash: 51%

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Incidentally, tomorrow is my dad's 57th birthday. Advanced happy birthday dad! I'm glad that you're trying to live a healthier lifestyle now. :D