PSEi chart

I'm a bit bearish with our market right now on the basis of this technical analysis above. The Shanghai composite index was down by 6.7% today after a former Morgan Stanley Asian economist said that China stocks are "in deep bubble," and may fall another whopping 25%! Dow Jones down almost 1% as of this writing.

I'm glad to be able to liquidate most of my stocks last week. I'm holding only CMT and Vista Land and Lifescapes (VLL) now. Month-on-month, I'm a bit dissatisfied with my net return (+8%) versus PSEi (+5%) because of some stupid trades and non-trades. I was not able to participate the huge rally last Monday as well, where PSEi rocketed up by 5%, due to some technical problems with my online broker.

Portfolio invested: 33%
Cash: 67%

Mushrooms

Mom bought a home-growing edible mushrooms from a food expo last month at World Trade Center. She got it quite cheap for only Php20 each! Each one can grow mushrooms quite a bountiful of times based on our experience.

Before watering (I know, my phone camera sucks!):



Sprouting stage:


Ready-for-consumption stage:



It takes normally less than a week from sprouting before it can reach full maturity. It's tasteless in my opinion. So you need to season to taste. It's a wonderful experience to be able to harvest our own food from our backyard. I'm trying to do some vegetable growing this time. Hopefully it'll work. :)

August 20, 24 and 25 trades

I sold all my PAX at 3.4 average as it seems to be going nowhere for now. I'll try to bottom fish this one for a change. My system is always been momentum trading, but I'll try something different. Let's see if it will work. I expect this to consolidate within the range of 3.20 to 3.70. Strong resistance is very evident in the area of 3.60-3.70 as we saw a while ago. :)

I got some Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) stock at 330. I chased this one up after it's breakout of 300 and seeing DW Capital's relentless buying. But I sold too early at 335 after forgetting to cancel my GTC sell order. :(

I averaged down on CMT at 1.04. I know that I shouldn't be breaking my cardinal rule of not to average down. But I can't help it seeing bargains after CLSA dumped much last week. Pattern is still intact towards the target of 1.40. :)

CMT daily:


Yesterday, I was really pissed at my online broker as they had encountered some technical issues with the platform. I called them twice, but tried to remain as calm as possible to dictate to them my orders but unfortunately my orders weren't matched. So I missed the very BIG upside of the market yesterday. :( I realized that my trading system will not work if I have a human broker because I place and cancel orders many times during a trading day. I'll miss much opportunity (or piss off my human broker) if I have to call up and wait on the phone line just for a human broker to post my orders or cancellations. Hehe. Online trading works for me very well. I do hope that they'll do things much better next time.

Anyway, I caught up on yesterday's property sector frenzy by buying FLI and MEG at 0.95 and 1.52, respectively, today. Foreign buying is still very much alive in the property sector especially on MEG. Chartwise, inverse head and shoulders pattern in FLI is still intact with target set at 1.40. My analysis on MEG is a bit unclear. It broke out of 1.48 today with volume and quickly hit a high of 1.54, but it closed back to 1.48. And apparently, 1.60 would pose a hindrance to the ascent (TP of cup and handle).

FLI Daily:

MEG Daily:


Portfolio invested: 55%
Cash: 45%

August 17 to 19 trades

I cut many of my holdings to taper off the massacre in the market. I cut SINO at 0.245, CYBR at 0.71, half of my CMT at 0.97 (which proved to be a mistake), and APC at 0.38. Technically, it seems that SINO and APC both broke down from its support that's why I got rid of them.

Yesterday, I made a boo-boo in Benpres Holdings (BPC). I tried to position first at the bid price of 3.05 while market price was doing 3.10. I was being too conservative! So I missed this ride, only to get it at the ask price of 3.35, which was a resistance. I feared that this will not pierce this resistance, so I cut BPC a fluctuation lower. I was just being jittery in this kind of market. Man, this proved me wrong! BPC pierced this resistance on very good volume and I ended up buying this stock up at 3.55! Wakhonga! Good thing that the momentum was there till today. I sold my BPC at 3.85 today. I should be content. :) Rumor mill says that BPC will sell it's stake in Digitel (DGTL). DGTL flew today as well! Hmm...

I sold the rest of my CMT at 1.06 at a minuscule profit as this was it's previous high. When CMT was trading in the range of 0.93-0.94 yesterday, which was the previous breakout point, now turned support, I hesitated to average down my holdings, thinking that I might just overexpose myself. So I ignored it. Instead I placed my bets on PAX again at 3.375 average. Stupid me! We know what happened to PAX and CMT today. :( I ended up buying the CMT I sold at 1.06 at a higher price of 1.12! My premise is that it broke 1.06 today convincingly. Target of 1.40 is still intact based on the technical analysis on my previous post below.

Market is still jittery. I viewed what happened to both PSEi and Dow today and yesterday, respectively, as a "dead-cat-bounce." Anyway, confirmation tonight and tomorrow is still needed to prove my theory correct. If it happens that our market goes down lower tomorrow, I might add some more CMT near 1.06. Let's see. Cement stocks are in the groove lately. Election play perhaps? :)

Portfolio invested: 44%
Cash: 56%

August 12 to 14 trades

Some blue chips were beaten black and blue, and second tiers and "basuras" (third liners) were set free! My hunch is that "basuras" will take the lime light this week.

PSEi Daily:


PSEi was showing some weakness lately especially on blue chips. Measured move to 2,900 resistance seems to have respected. MACD impending crossover may trigger more selling pressures next week.

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I was experiencing some difficulties with my online trading platform as, probably, it got affected as well by the South East Asia-wide internet problem. So it would be prudent to cash in some gains, if any. But I bought a minuscule Geograce Resources (GEO) again after a long long time at 0.81 on Wednesday as it looked like a valid breakout from 0.79. Volume was exceptional as well. But on the hindsight, it was a whipsaw. It closed 0.79 on Friday. Is it mimicking TUNA after it breaks out of 1.60 then crashing to 1.50 a few days after? Uh oh. :(

GEO Daily:


I cut all my IP at 2.4 as it was just moving sideways. I also sold all my GMA7 at a profit at 7.3 (TOO EARLY!), because that was its previous high. I panicked to sell on this one because I don't want to be caught again by GMA7's one-day-wonder moves. Then a barrage of buying by Regis and BDO elevated the price to close at a day high of 7.8, but it crashed back down to 7.4 on Friday! Anyway, I'm happy with the profits; grateful of God's grace. :)

I sold all my PAX as well at 3.68 average for a profit after seeing it having difficulty going up past 3.75-3.80. :) Short-term players were going in out of this stock for now. I'll get back on this one again near support.

PAX Daily:


Last Friday, I was seeing funds exiting blue chips and rotating to some second liners and basuras. I sold CYBR at 0.72 because it was consolidating at it's lows and without any meaningful accumulation. It did go down to 0.66 (previous support) and some big buying ensued. I managed to ride again on this one, but at 0.73 already (a bit late though). But it still closed up strongly at its high of 0.75 showing a strong reversal. It looks like it will test 0.80's again come this week. :)

CYBR Daily:


I got into some minuscule basuras SINO and APC Group (APC) at 0.28 and 0.42, respectively. Big volumes were traded last Friday. I wonder what were these up to. APC is forming beautifully an inverse head and shoulders formation with potential target of 0.70. :)

APC Daily:


I got into South East Asia Cement (CMT) as well at 1.04 after it broke out of the 1.00 heavy resistance with convincing volume. Charts looks to point to the area of 1.40-ish as its target. :)

CMT Daily:


Composition:
CMT = 16%
GEO = 8%
CYBR = 6%
SINO = 3%
APC = 3%
Odd-lots = 2%

Portfolio invested: 38%
Cash: 62%

Sweet Delights for Everyone

Market is very boring lately and I got some "ipits" (stuck stocks) as well. :(

Anyway, I found an amusing email that I got long ago from my friend in my old and rarely used email account. It's just an eye-opener for all sweet-tooth folks. :P The white cubes are supposed to represent sugar. So more cubes mean sweeter delights (click to enlarge):





I can't believe that strawberries account only that little sugar. Hmm...

August 10 and 11 trades

I got whipsawed twice by IP. I cut my IP at 2.3 yesterday only buy it again at 2.46 today. IP closed 2.4 today. The volume was big these past few days for IP with corresponding breakout-like whipsaws. That's why I got whipped pretty badly. Ouch! :( I'll hold this for now. I also cut my EDC at 0.10 lower than my cost after it's not going up as it supposed to be due to the pennant breakout. This is bearish. EDC closed 3.60 today.

I was able to ride PAX at 3.26 average yesterday and today, and sold them all today at 3.50. :) PAX was very wild today. It opened 3.70, then quickly went down to 3.35 and quickly went up again to 3.5. I thought it was just doing an intraday testing of support, so I bought back PAX at. 3.45. On the hindsight, it was a boo-boo. PAX closed lower today to 3.25. :( It will be make or break for PAX tomorrow!

I sold all of my AT today at 8.1 as I don't want to expose myself too much especially at these times.

I'm still very busy these days due to the ongoing due diligence audit. I guess I'm still fortunate to be able to sneak in a trade or two daily. :)

Portfolio invested: 74%
Cash: 26%

Frustrating trades

Yesterday and today are very frustrating for me. I made stupid trades, which cost me about 2% of my portfolio. :( I knew it! I shouldn't go against my instincts. The market did correct these two days.

I sold my remaining AC at 307.50 after it gapped down because of Globe Telecom's (GLO) disappointing dividends. I should have sold sooner! :( Sigh. Greediness is killing me. :(

I bought some Atlas Mining (AT) yesterday at 7.8 after it broke out of 7.6 with good volume. Apparently, due to negative market sentiments, this breakout didn't budge so much as of today. :(

I bought (and got whipsawed badly) some IPVG (IP) at 2.40 due to breakout. But heavy volume sellers marred the rise. I'm so frustrated that I didn't cut this sooner. :(

I noticed PX was the play today. But instead of riding it, I chose to buy a minuscule CYBR instead at 0.70. Arrgggh!

I'm so frustrated! I'm getting emotional with my trades. Emotions would kill me. On the hindsight, I think I even over-positioned myself despite having this kind of market. :(

Composition:
EDC = 28%
GMA7 = 19%
AT = 16%
IP = 11%
CYBR = 6%
Odd-lots = 3%

Cash: 17%

August 3 and 4 trades

Our market continued to trek up towards the 2,900 resistance level. The mining sector, particularly, Manila Mining Corp. (MA/B) and LC/B, led the rally last Monday, but its strength didn't spill over today. MA/B and LC/B opened higher but closed unchanged and lower, respectively.

PSEi Daily:


We're still within the mid-term up trend channel (red lines), but we're now nearing the "former" up trend channel support line now had become a resistance (blue lines), which is incidentally around the 2,900 area. If we're going to use the "measured move," we can see that it points also to the area of 2,900. MACD and RSI are also testing resistance levels.

PSEi Weekly:


On a bigger picture, strong resistance is seen at 3,000, but we need to be wary as well of 2,900 (encircled). Inverse head and shoulders pattern is still intact as previously mentioned.

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As market continued to trek up, I'm lightening up my exposure just in case it would turn sour. I got some MA shares last Monday at 0.024 as I saw strength in it (it went ceiling then) but sold it today at 0.025 for a measly profit. :( I was caught in heavy traffic this morning so I arrived at the office a bit late. So, I missed the high of 0.028. :( But anyway, at least it's still a profit. For those who don't know yet, MVP also announced that he's considering MA as well aside from LC. I got some feedback from various brokers that MA is a better play than LC due to the fact that the MA's mine site is adjacent to Philex's (PX) Padcal site. Better economy for PX perhaps?

I also sold half of my FLI yesterday at 0.99 as I'm seeing toppish conditions. It was confirmed today as it formed a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (bearish). See image below:

We'll see the confirmation on Thursday to validate this short term reversal. I sold all the rest of FLI today at 1.00. :)

I also got rid of WEB at 0.055 on Monday for 5% profit after holding it for quite some time now. I decided to sell this because it was not moving much, and decided to free up some capital tied up to this so that I can buy some other stronger issues. Efficiency-wise, it was not a very profitable trade because of the length of time I held on to this, and for only a 5% profit. And, to add insult to my injury, it just shot up today and closed at 0.06! Oh man! :(

I sold half of my AC today as well at 325 for a decent 8% profit. :) It seems to have respected the neckline at 320 today (opened 325, high 327.5, but closed at its low at 320) - classic bearish meeting lines (not good). That means, in an up trend, the price opened higher than yesterday's price, but closed unchanged versus yesterday's closing. I'll hold the rest of my AC for now with mental stop set at the break of 320.

I cut all my CYBR at 0.70 today. I learned once again not to be greedy. I have already set my sights to sell this one last week at 0.80's, but I didn't. The Lord rebuked me. :( I also sold SINO at cost.

I transferred much of my sales today to acquire a truckload of Energy Development Corp. (EDC) at 4.75. It seems to me that it broke out of its flag formation with a target price in the area of 5.3. One major obstacle right now is the major resistance at 5.00.

EDC daily:


Composition:
EDC = 28%
GMA7 = 19%
AC = 13%
Odd-lots = 3%

Portfolio invested: 63%
Cash: 37%

Finally! Trades for the week

I got my break today from the on-going due diligence review so I got this chance to post. (Wait a minute, I'm doing this in my office! I'm so happy!)

The highlight of this week, aside from the State-of-the-Nation Address (SONA), was probably MER (on a speculation of a tender offer) hitting a high of 302.50 on Wednesday, gapping down and went to a low of 190 the next day, reaching a high of 267.50 on Friday, before closing at 229! I'm really awestruck at this volatility. This explains the volatility of PSEi this week. I knew that MER would "crash" on Thursday after seeing huge crosses at 300 the day before that, as I knew that the buyer was already satisfied (at least partially). Initially I thought MER will drag down the market, but I was pleased to see that the funds liquidated from MER were moved to other sectors particularly properties and banking. This was a good sign of healthy fund movement. We even experience huge net foreign buying yesterday!

Technical analysis of PSEi (clickable):



It seems that PSEi broke out of 2,790 and is now moving towards the next resistance at 2,880 (dotted line). It will be harder for PSEi to move up for now as the indicators are pointing to overbought levels. 2,626 remains its support. Actually it's hard for technicians like me to judge the top of the market as much of the volatility lately was skewed by MER. Reverse head and shoulders formation (bullish) is still intact.

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Trades:

Remember the holding company that I said I'm looking intently? It was Ayala Corp. (AC). It is forming a reverse head and shoulders pattern beautifully with neckline at 320. I got a significant portion at 300. Should the neckline be broken convincingly, we should see target 450 to 460. :)

AC weekly:



I also bought back PAX at 2.8. 3 to 3.1 has proved to be a stubborn resistance. Thus I sold all of this at 2.85 average.

I was lured back to LC again at 0.28 due to strong volume on Monday. Well, I anticipated that this would breakout 0.28 that day too, but it didn't. I guess everyone's focus was on MER this week. I decided to cut this one at 2 fluctuations lower. Chartwise, I wasn't that bullish anymore. Negative divergences with MACD and RSI were forming. 0.25 is a very critical support.

I bought a little Minerales Industrias Corporation (MIC) as well only to cut it on the very same day. :( I was whipsawed, thinking that it broke out of 3.5. I decided to transfer my proceeds to MER and FLI. I ordered to purchase a minuscule of MER at 262.5, but only half was matched. :( I took this gamble to purchase MER because momentum was there. I threw out my technical analysis for I know it won't work on this stock. I sold MER too early the next day at 282.5 (that day hit a high of 302.5).

I got a good chunk of Filinvest Land Inc. (FLI) at 0.92 (a bit too high though), because it broke out of 0.87 resistance quite convincingly (with big volume). Property is in play right now, and I believe will spill over to next week together with banks.

I cut all my TUNA at one fluctuation lower than my cost because it was too slow (read: impatience).

I'm happy to hitch a ride with Cyber Bay Corp. (CYBR) at 0.75 average on rumors that a third party investor wants to buy into the company. Also, I bought a minuscule Sinophil Corp. (SINO) at 0.27 on recurring exceptional volumes and breakout.

Composition:
AC = 24%
GMA7 = 19%
FLI = 16%
WEB = 11%
CYBR = 10%
SINO = 7%
Odd-lots = 2%
*Oops! Broke cardinal rule again. :(

Portfolio invested: 89%
Cash: 11%

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The month of July brought me an additional 10% return to my portfolio. Praise God for this for He has provided to help me meet our family debt! Though I'm a bit disappointed because my benchmark increased by 19%. :( I was depressed for about 10 minutes, but I was relieved after I realized the MER factor in July.