PSEi chart

I'm a bit bearish with our market right now on the basis of this technical analysis above. The Shanghai composite index was down by 6.7% today after a former Morgan Stanley Asian economist said that China stocks are "in deep bubble," and may fall another whopping 25%! Dow Jones down almost 1% as of this writing.

I'm glad to be able to liquidate most of my stocks last week. I'm holding only CMT and Vista Land and Lifescapes (VLL) now. Month-on-month, I'm a bit dissatisfied with my net return (+8%) versus PSEi (+5%) because of some stupid trades and non-trades. I was not able to participate the huge rally last Monday as well, where PSEi rocketed up by 5%, due to some technical problems with my online broker.

Portfolio invested: 33%
Cash: 67%

August 20, 24 and 25 trades

I sold all my PAX at 3.4 average as it seems to be going nowhere for now. I'll try to bottom fish this one for a change. My system is always been momentum trading, but I'll try something different. Let's see if it will work. I expect this to consolidate within the range of 3.20 to 3.70. Strong resistance is very evident in the area of 3.60-3.70 as we saw a while ago. :)

I got some Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) stock at 330. I chased this one up after it's breakout of 300 and seeing DW Capital's relentless buying. But I sold too early at 335 after forgetting to cancel my GTC sell order. :(

I averaged down on CMT at 1.04. I know that I shouldn't be breaking my cardinal rule of not to average down. But I can't help it seeing bargains after CLSA dumped much last week. Pattern is still intact towards the target of 1.40. :)

CMT daily:


Yesterday, I was really pissed at my online broker as they had encountered some technical issues with the platform. I called them twice, but tried to remain as calm as possible to dictate to them my orders but unfortunately my orders weren't matched. So I missed the very BIG upside of the market yesterday. :( I realized that my trading system will not work if I have a human broker because I place and cancel orders many times during a trading day. I'll miss much opportunity (or piss off my human broker) if I have to call up and wait on the phone line just for a human broker to post my orders or cancellations. Hehe. Online trading works for me very well. I do hope that they'll do things much better next time.

Anyway, I caught up on yesterday's property sector frenzy by buying FLI and MEG at 0.95 and 1.52, respectively, today. Foreign buying is still very much alive in the property sector especially on MEG. Chartwise, inverse head and shoulders pattern in FLI is still intact with target set at 1.40. My analysis on MEG is a bit unclear. It broke out of 1.48 today with volume and quickly hit a high of 1.54, but it closed back to 1.48. And apparently, 1.60 would pose a hindrance to the ascent (TP of cup and handle).

FLI Daily:

MEG Daily:


Portfolio invested: 55%
Cash: 45%

August 17 to 19 trades

I cut many of my holdings to taper off the massacre in the market. I cut SINO at 0.245, CYBR at 0.71, half of my CMT at 0.97 (which proved to be a mistake), and APC at 0.38. Technically, it seems that SINO and APC both broke down from its support that's why I got rid of them.

Yesterday, I made a boo-boo in Benpres Holdings (BPC). I tried to position first at the bid price of 3.05 while market price was doing 3.10. I was being too conservative! So I missed this ride, only to get it at the ask price of 3.35, which was a resistance. I feared that this will not pierce this resistance, so I cut BPC a fluctuation lower. I was just being jittery in this kind of market. Man, this proved me wrong! BPC pierced this resistance on very good volume and I ended up buying this stock up at 3.55! Wakhonga! Good thing that the momentum was there till today. I sold my BPC at 3.85 today. I should be content. :) Rumor mill says that BPC will sell it's stake in Digitel (DGTL). DGTL flew today as well! Hmm...

I sold the rest of my CMT at 1.06 at a minuscule profit as this was it's previous high. When CMT was trading in the range of 0.93-0.94 yesterday, which was the previous breakout point, now turned support, I hesitated to average down my holdings, thinking that I might just overexpose myself. So I ignored it. Instead I placed my bets on PAX again at 3.375 average. Stupid me! We know what happened to PAX and CMT today. :( I ended up buying the CMT I sold at 1.06 at a higher price of 1.12! My premise is that it broke 1.06 today convincingly. Target of 1.40 is still intact based on the technical analysis on my previous post below.

Market is still jittery. I viewed what happened to both PSEi and Dow today and yesterday, respectively, as a "dead-cat-bounce." Anyway, confirmation tonight and tomorrow is still needed to prove my theory correct. If it happens that our market goes down lower tomorrow, I might add some more CMT near 1.06. Let's see. Cement stocks are in the groove lately. Election play perhaps? :)

Portfolio invested: 44%
Cash: 56%

August 12 to 14 trades

Some blue chips were beaten black and blue, and second tiers and "basuras" (third liners) were set free! My hunch is that "basuras" will take the lime light this week.

PSEi Daily:


PSEi was showing some weakness lately especially on blue chips. Measured move to 2,900 resistance seems to have respected. MACD impending crossover may trigger more selling pressures next week.

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I was experiencing some difficulties with my online trading platform as, probably, it got affected as well by the South East Asia-wide internet problem. So it would be prudent to cash in some gains, if any. But I bought a minuscule Geograce Resources (GEO) again after a long long time at 0.81 on Wednesday as it looked like a valid breakout from 0.79. Volume was exceptional as well. But on the hindsight, it was a whipsaw. It closed 0.79 on Friday. Is it mimicking TUNA after it breaks out of 1.60 then crashing to 1.50 a few days after? Uh oh. :(

GEO Daily:


I cut all my IP at 2.4 as it was just moving sideways. I also sold all my GMA7 at a profit at 7.3 (TOO EARLY!), because that was its previous high. I panicked to sell on this one because I don't want to be caught again by GMA7's one-day-wonder moves. Then a barrage of buying by Regis and BDO elevated the price to close at a day high of 7.8, but it crashed back down to 7.4 on Friday! Anyway, I'm happy with the profits; grateful of God's grace. :)

I sold all my PAX as well at 3.68 average for a profit after seeing it having difficulty going up past 3.75-3.80. :) Short-term players were going in out of this stock for now. I'll get back on this one again near support.

PAX Daily:


Last Friday, I was seeing funds exiting blue chips and rotating to some second liners and basuras. I sold CYBR at 0.72 because it was consolidating at it's lows and without any meaningful accumulation. It did go down to 0.66 (previous support) and some big buying ensued. I managed to ride again on this one, but at 0.73 already (a bit late though). But it still closed up strongly at its high of 0.75 showing a strong reversal. It looks like it will test 0.80's again come this week. :)

CYBR Daily:


I got into some minuscule basuras SINO and APC Group (APC) at 0.28 and 0.42, respectively. Big volumes were traded last Friday. I wonder what were these up to. APC is forming beautifully an inverse head and shoulders formation with potential target of 0.70. :)

APC Daily:


I got into South East Asia Cement (CMT) as well at 1.04 after it broke out of the 1.00 heavy resistance with convincing volume. Charts looks to point to the area of 1.40-ish as its target. :)

CMT Daily:


Composition:
CMT = 16%
GEO = 8%
CYBR = 6%
SINO = 3%
APC = 3%
Odd-lots = 2%

Portfolio invested: 38%
Cash: 62%