Frustrating trades

Yesterday and today are very frustrating for me. I made stupid trades, which cost me about 2% of my portfolio. :( I knew it! I shouldn't go against my instincts. The market did correct these two days.

I sold my remaining AC at 307.50 after it gapped down because of Globe Telecom's (GLO) disappointing dividends. I should have sold sooner! :( Sigh. Greediness is killing me. :(

I bought some Atlas Mining (AT) yesterday at 7.8 after it broke out of 7.6 with good volume. Apparently, due to negative market sentiments, this breakout didn't budge so much as of today. :(

I bought (and got whipsawed badly) some IPVG (IP) at 2.40 due to breakout. But heavy volume sellers marred the rise. I'm so frustrated that I didn't cut this sooner. :(

I noticed PX was the play today. But instead of riding it, I chose to buy a minuscule CYBR instead at 0.70. Arrgggh!

I'm so frustrated! I'm getting emotional with my trades. Emotions would kill me. On the hindsight, I think I even over-positioned myself despite having this kind of market. :(

Composition:
EDC = 28%
GMA7 = 19%
AT = 16%
IP = 11%
CYBR = 6%
Odd-lots = 3%

Cash: 17%

August 3 and 4 trades

Our market continued to trek up towards the 2,900 resistance level. The mining sector, particularly, Manila Mining Corp. (MA/B) and LC/B, led the rally last Monday, but its strength didn't spill over today. MA/B and LC/B opened higher but closed unchanged and lower, respectively.

PSEi Daily:


We're still within the mid-term up trend channel (red lines), but we're now nearing the "former" up trend channel support line now had become a resistance (blue lines), which is incidentally around the 2,900 area. If we're going to use the "measured move," we can see that it points also to the area of 2,900. MACD and RSI are also testing resistance levels.

PSEi Weekly:


On a bigger picture, strong resistance is seen at 3,000, but we need to be wary as well of 2,900 (encircled). Inverse head and shoulders pattern is still intact as previously mentioned.

-----------------

As market continued to trek up, I'm lightening up my exposure just in case it would turn sour. I got some MA shares last Monday at 0.024 as I saw strength in it (it went ceiling then) but sold it today at 0.025 for a measly profit. :( I was caught in heavy traffic this morning so I arrived at the office a bit late. So, I missed the high of 0.028. :( But anyway, at least it's still a profit. For those who don't know yet, MVP also announced that he's considering MA as well aside from LC. I got some feedback from various brokers that MA is a better play than LC due to the fact that the MA's mine site is adjacent to Philex's (PX) Padcal site. Better economy for PX perhaps?

I also sold half of my FLI yesterday at 0.99 as I'm seeing toppish conditions. It was confirmed today as it formed a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (bearish). See image below:

We'll see the confirmation on Thursday to validate this short term reversal. I sold all the rest of FLI today at 1.00. :)

I also got rid of WEB at 0.055 on Monday for 5% profit after holding it for quite some time now. I decided to sell this because it was not moving much, and decided to free up some capital tied up to this so that I can buy some other stronger issues. Efficiency-wise, it was not a very profitable trade because of the length of time I held on to this, and for only a 5% profit. And, to add insult to my injury, it just shot up today and closed at 0.06! Oh man! :(

I sold half of my AC today as well at 325 for a decent 8% profit. :) It seems to have respected the neckline at 320 today (opened 325, high 327.5, but closed at its low at 320) - classic bearish meeting lines (not good). That means, in an up trend, the price opened higher than yesterday's price, but closed unchanged versus yesterday's closing. I'll hold the rest of my AC for now with mental stop set at the break of 320.

I cut all my CYBR at 0.70 today. I learned once again not to be greedy. I have already set my sights to sell this one last week at 0.80's, but I didn't. The Lord rebuked me. :( I also sold SINO at cost.

I transferred much of my sales today to acquire a truckload of Energy Development Corp. (EDC) at 4.75. It seems to me that it broke out of its flag formation with a target price in the area of 5.3. One major obstacle right now is the major resistance at 5.00.

EDC daily:


Composition:
EDC = 28%
GMA7 = 19%
AC = 13%
Odd-lots = 3%

Portfolio invested: 63%
Cash: 37%

July 7 trades

Market seems to have bounced from support since yesterday, but volume of both days were a bit anemic. Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index (PSEi) went up by close to 1% to 2,472 today but in only Php1.6 billion volume. That means, less and less buyers were willing to bid up the prices especially now that the 2,500 psychological resistance is near. Major contributors to this ascent were MER and Ayala Corp. (AC), which contributed 9 and 5 points, respectively.

I liquidated (or sold, cashing out) some of my stock holdings today. I managed to sell MER at 160 near the open thinking the resistance of 161 will hold. Well, in the end, it didn't. MER managed to hit a high of 165 before closing to 161. Anyway, my gut feel tells me that this was already "toppish" as trade volume from 162 to 165 were a bit thin and MER was now testing the resistance of its uptrend channel. Anyway, at the end of the day I would like to thank the Lord for this timely blessing especially now that He knew my family is in debt. :) MER technical analysis below (click to enlarge):



I cut APO at 1.18 thinking it will not go anywhere, and might even possibly go down once the market corrects. My cost was 1.30, but good thing I only had minimal exposure there. :)

I managed to hitch a ride on PX this morning at 7.3. Volume is still there, so I'm holding this for now but only for a quick flip. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 75 already which is already overbought. But based on previous RSI levels, we might encounter some resistance at 80 levels. So I think there's still some room to go up (hopefully). Technical analysis of PX below (click to enlarge):



I'm still holding on to PAX even though it was weaker today (minimal volume only). Pennant is still intact. I set my stops (or cut loss or selling point) at 2.40 as this is the breakdown point of the pennant pattern. Resistance still holds at 2.60-2.70. It needs strong volume to break this out. Technical analysis of PAX below (click to enlarge):



Composition:
PX = 24%
PAX = 23%
Odd-lot stocks = 4%

Portfolio invested: 51%
Cash: 41%

July 6 trades

The market started in the doldrums except for the last hour of trading. I posted some "barat" (very cheap) bids for Philex (PX) and PhilWeb (WEB). As expected, it didn't hit. :( So I decided to raise my Good-till-Canceled (GTC) bid for PX to 7.3 towards the end of trading, but remain unmatched by the time of closing. I decided to cancel my order for WEB as it looks like it was "artificially" being bought up to 0.0525. PX looked to have confirmed the breakout last week with matching good volume, so hopefully I could still catch this boat. I switched my canceled WEB order to Paxys (PAX) at 2.46, which seems like to have formed a pennant pattern.

I'm still holding some Meralco (MER), which I bought at 145 last Friday because it's consolidating at it's highs (or seems like a flag pattern to me). MER is doing 153 today. Yipee! I'm still stuck though with some odd-lots. I'm looking to cut Anglo Philippine Holdings (APO) tomorrow.

Composition:
MER = 29%
PAX = 23%
APO = 7%
Odd-lot stocks = 4%

Portfolio invested: 63%
Cash: 37%