August 20, 24 and 25 trades

I sold all my PAX at 3.4 average as it seems to be going nowhere for now. I'll try to bottom fish this one for a change. My system is always been momentum trading, but I'll try something different. Let's see if it will work. I expect this to consolidate within the range of 3.20 to 3.70. Strong resistance is very evident in the area of 3.60-3.70 as we saw a while ago. :)

I got some Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) stock at 330. I chased this one up after it's breakout of 300 and seeing DW Capital's relentless buying. But I sold too early at 335 after forgetting to cancel my GTC sell order. :(

I averaged down on CMT at 1.04. I know that I shouldn't be breaking my cardinal rule of not to average down. But I can't help it seeing bargains after CLSA dumped much last week. Pattern is still intact towards the target of 1.40. :)

CMT daily:


Yesterday, I was really pissed at my online broker as they had encountered some technical issues with the platform. I called them twice, but tried to remain as calm as possible to dictate to them my orders but unfortunately my orders weren't matched. So I missed the very BIG upside of the market yesterday. :( I realized that my trading system will not work if I have a human broker because I place and cancel orders many times during a trading day. I'll miss much opportunity (or piss off my human broker) if I have to call up and wait on the phone line just for a human broker to post my orders or cancellations. Hehe. Online trading works for me very well. I do hope that they'll do things much better next time.

Anyway, I caught up on yesterday's property sector frenzy by buying FLI and MEG at 0.95 and 1.52, respectively, today. Foreign buying is still very much alive in the property sector especially on MEG. Chartwise, inverse head and shoulders pattern in FLI is still intact with target set at 1.40. My analysis on MEG is a bit unclear. It broke out of 1.48 today with volume and quickly hit a high of 1.54, but it closed back to 1.48. And apparently, 1.60 would pose a hindrance to the ascent (TP of cup and handle).

FLI Daily:

MEG Daily:


Portfolio invested: 55%
Cash: 45%

July 23 and 24 trades

The Philippine market was very good yesterday, breaking out of the recent high of 2,626 convincingly in very good volume (Php4.5 billion) in response to good corporate earnings in the US. PSEi closed 2,676 or 2.5% higher than last Thursday, but consolidating most of the Friday morning in the range of 2,646 to 2,656 (probably due to indecision after breakout by investors), before the bulls finally taking over during the last hour of trading. Immediate resistance is pegged at 2,750 to 2,780, which might be a tough nut to crack.

I'm seeing a beautiful inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is bullish, forming since mid-2008 until now (refer to the clickable picture below) Yesterday could be a sign that the neckline was broken with good volume. But there's an immediate resistance above it (or could this be the real neckline? Let's see).

PSEi daily (compliments of Yahoo! Finance):


RSI is already pointing a short-term overbought condition. MACD and RSI might test their previous highs as well (MACD - mid August 2008; RSI - Oct. 2007 and June 2009). My take is that we might experience some breather in the next couple of weeks, and hopefully consolidate for now as it will be healthier for the market in the long run.

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Trades:

Last Thursday, after seeing Republic Cement Corp. (RCM) shot up to ceiling with good volume before closing lower (sad to say that I was a bit too hesitant to buy this one due to its illiquidity), I bought a minuscule position in Holcim Cement (HLCM) at 3.55 thinking of sympathy play. But it didn't budge. I decided to cut this one out at one fluctuation lower.

I sold my entire position in LC for a quick 10% profit due to a heavy wall at 0.28 :). See my technical analysis of this in my previous post. I'll get back on this one at 0.25-0.26. Rumors were circulating that MVP and Lolo's prices were miles apart. Hmm...

I also sold my NI a little too early at an average price of 9.49 thinking it will have a hard time to break 10 due to high RSI and resistance. But the jockey has a different idea in mind. :( Yesterday, it went even higher. :( But still, it's a quick 10% profit. I should be content already thinking this was my biggest position last Wednesday. Maybe God is teaching me to be content with His blessings. :)

I was glad that this PAX finally got its feet moving last Thursday after almost a month of consolidating. But I quickly got rid also it for a 10% profit due to strong resistance at 3 area. I'll get back on this one if it goes back to its previous resistance of 2.65.

I also sold the rest of MEG at 1.14 for some coffee money and transferred all of it plus some more to GMA Network (GMA7) at 6.7. It broke out yesterday with volume. Potential target is 7.4 (previous high).

GMA7 daily (courtesy of COL):


To God be all the glory! :)

Potential stocks to trade next week:
I'm looking at going back to LC and PAX if my target buying area is achieved. I'm also thinking at going into certain blue chips again: one is the holding company that I mentioned before and another that is into power.

Composition:
GMA7 = 19%
TUNA = 13%
WEB = 11%
Odd-lots = 3%

Portfolio invested: 46%
Cash: 54%

July 21 and 22 trades

PSEi was trying to mimic how Dow behaved--lots of choppiness. Both markets were experiencing some toppish signals as evidenced by lower value turnover despite in an upward trend. PSEi is yet to test the recent high of 2,626, while the Dow was already testing 8,900-ish.

PSEi was up by 19 points today to 2,612 and was led (again) by Lopez stocks, mainly MER and First Philippine Holdings (FPH), which registered a whopping Php162 million and Php60 million worth of net foreign buying, respectively. Total market turnover of Php2.8 billion was a little bit wanting for me. This just meant that there were lesser aggressive buyers today than yesterday or last week as we are approaching the resistance. Breadth was still good though with the advancers outnumbering the decliners 85 to 33 with 55 unchanged. We were net foreign buying overall of Php162 million today (MER coincidence?).

MER closed 199 today on huge volume after hitting a high of 200. Rumor mill was speculating that Ramon S. Ang (RSA, for short), president of San Miguel Corp. (SMC/B), might be enticed now to sell its MER holdings to MVP at this "spectacular" price. :)

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I got my documentary stamp tax refund today, which added 1.5% to my year-to-date return. :)

I realized that I was whipsawed by LC the other day (refer to my previous post) after massive selling by Felipe Yap-associated brokers. So I bought this back up at a much higher cost of 0.245 instead. :( But at least I was able to ride this one. It broke out of 0.25 resistance today confirming the flag pattern (resistance was also the 100-week moving average). LC closed today at 0.28 resistance on big volume. I expect this to hurdle this resistance tomorrow barring any unforeseen circumstances. Refer to my technical analysis below (click to enlarge):

LC daily:



LC weekly (cup and handle pattern still intact):



The holding firm that I was monitoring (refer to my previous post) was a bit shy these two days. It might test previous resistance first to confirm breakout. I'll keep my eye on this one.

I also bought a ton of NiHAO Mineral Resources (NI) the other day at 8.6 due to strength and breakout from previous resistance of 8.5. I'm still holding onto this one today. We might taste some wall on the 10th to 11.5th floors.

NI daily:



I disposed off more than 50% of my holdings of MEGA-heavy MEG at 1.08 to transfer some to Alliance Tuna (TUNA) at 1.62. Macquarie seems still has a lot of bullets to pepper hapless MEG investors like me. :( Selling to buy MER and FPH? Macquarie were top buyers of these two today (this broker was associated to MVP before. Hmm...). Buying of TUNA was based purely on breakout of 1.60 strong resistance. But we might experience some selling towards 1.68-1.70 as seen in the chart below:

TUNA daily:



I'm still holding on to the rest of my holdings. PAX looks interesting. I expect this to erupt soon as there were signs of accumulation on going. :)

Composition:
NI = 27%
PAX = 16%
TUNA = 13%
MEG = 13%
LC = 11%
WEB = 11%
Odd-lots = 3%
*I broke my cardinal rule of not to hold more than 5 stocks at a time. I guess I'm just bullish (for now). :)

Portfolio invested: 95%
Cash: 5%

Somebody didn't want to have her picture taken

Who's she? Why is she camera-shy? :)

Answer:

... Because it's her birthday today! Happy birthday Kayla_wonders!

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Trades for the day:

I dumped all my LC as Lolo (Felipe Yap, majority owner of LC and stockbroker) didn't want to cooperate. :( Good thing I still profited from it. :) I'll be keen to buy this back again if opportunity arises. I'm still holding on to the rest of my stocks. I'm looking at one holding company today. Technically speaking, it's a very good buy! Let's see tomorrow. :)

PSEi did a great move today coupled with strong volume. Big foreign buying is cornered by Lopez stocks and some properties. Heavy net foreign sellers were present in banking. Market is still intact to retest again the recent high of 2,626. European markets are up by close to 2% and Dow Futures by 0.71% as of this writing. Oil and gold are up 2%! Time to brim up your cars!

Composition:
MEG = 32%
PAX = 16% (very disappointed)
WEB = 12%
Odd-lots = 3%

Portfolio invested: 63%
Cash: 37%

July 15 and 16 trades

The Dow went up by 1% yesterday afternoon (US time) after Nouriel Roubini's "rosier" US outlook. It traded mostly flat in the morning. The Dow is now at 8,712 as of yesterday, which has confirmed the negation of the bearish head and shoulders pattern that I was saying on my July 14 post. It looks poised to test the resistance again in the area of 8,850. What worries me a bit is the volume.

On the local front, we're enjoying a long weekend. No trading today because of tropical storm "Isang," which caused the curtailment of governmental work. So since there was no central bank work, therefore there were no clearing facilities, and no trading. :( Good thing was that the PSEi confirmed the 2,500 breakout with volume and good breadth. Weekly volume increased from Php12 billion last week to Php12.3 billion this week (sans the MER block trade on four trading days only). Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) now showed a buy signal. We might test 2,626 pretty soon. :)

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I increased my holdings on LC by 25%. I'm pretty happy with this one though it's now experiencing some resistance due to the 130 and 200-week moving averages. My average cost is 0.214. :)

I bought some Metro Pacific Investment Corp. (MPI) thinking it will rise very soon as it was near the up trend support line. It did for a while, but was met by a brick wall at 6, and was sold down to 5.7. I decided to cut it one fluctuation lower than my cost as I don't think it's going anywhere for now. :(

I sold PAX but buying it again at a higher price. :( Man! This is hard to time. My hunch is that a (big?) move is coming.

I got a truckload of Megaworld Corp. (MEG) also, but it seems that the investors were experiencing some indecision as evidenced by the doji. I realized afterwards that I had overexposed myself on this one. :( But with interest at all time low, I can't think of any way that this will not benefit property developers. Besides, OFW remittances are at record highs. :)

Composition:
MEG = 32%
LC = 25%
PAX = 15%
WEB = 11%
Odd-lots = 3%

Portfolio invested: 87%
Cash: 13%