Busy

I'm sad because I cannot update my blog (except for this one) as I've been very busy as a corporate slave lately. :( That's why I wanted to achieve financial freedom someday (read: still patiently waiting). Hopefully, trading stocks could help hasten a bit. :)

On the average, it will take me at least 2 hours to post a comprehensive blog entry. That I don't have the luxury as of now. I'll post my trades later this week. Promise. I'll just need to get rid of this due diligence review off my back :)

God bless!

July 23 and 24 trades

The Philippine market was very good yesterday, breaking out of the recent high of 2,626 convincingly in very good volume (Php4.5 billion) in response to good corporate earnings in the US. PSEi closed 2,676 or 2.5% higher than last Thursday, but consolidating most of the Friday morning in the range of 2,646 to 2,656 (probably due to indecision after breakout by investors), before the bulls finally taking over during the last hour of trading. Immediate resistance is pegged at 2,750 to 2,780, which might be a tough nut to crack.

I'm seeing a beautiful inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is bullish, forming since mid-2008 until now (refer to the clickable picture below) Yesterday could be a sign that the neckline was broken with good volume. But there's an immediate resistance above it (or could this be the real neckline? Let's see).

PSEi daily (compliments of Yahoo! Finance):


RSI is already pointing a short-term overbought condition. MACD and RSI might test their previous highs as well (MACD - mid August 2008; RSI - Oct. 2007 and June 2009). My take is that we might experience some breather in the next couple of weeks, and hopefully consolidate for now as it will be healthier for the market in the long run.

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Trades:

Last Thursday, after seeing Republic Cement Corp. (RCM) shot up to ceiling with good volume before closing lower (sad to say that I was a bit too hesitant to buy this one due to its illiquidity), I bought a minuscule position in Holcim Cement (HLCM) at 3.55 thinking of sympathy play. But it didn't budge. I decided to cut this one out at one fluctuation lower.

I sold my entire position in LC for a quick 10% profit due to a heavy wall at 0.28 :). See my technical analysis of this in my previous post. I'll get back on this one at 0.25-0.26. Rumors were circulating that MVP and Lolo's prices were miles apart. Hmm...

I also sold my NI a little too early at an average price of 9.49 thinking it will have a hard time to break 10 due to high RSI and resistance. But the jockey has a different idea in mind. :( Yesterday, it went even higher. :( But still, it's a quick 10% profit. I should be content already thinking this was my biggest position last Wednesday. Maybe God is teaching me to be content with His blessings. :)

I was glad that this PAX finally got its feet moving last Thursday after almost a month of consolidating. But I quickly got rid also it for a 10% profit due to strong resistance at 3 area. I'll get back on this one if it goes back to its previous resistance of 2.65.

I also sold the rest of MEG at 1.14 for some coffee money and transferred all of it plus some more to GMA Network (GMA7) at 6.7. It broke out yesterday with volume. Potential target is 7.4 (previous high).

GMA7 daily (courtesy of COL):


To God be all the glory! :)

Potential stocks to trade next week:
I'm looking at going back to LC and PAX if my target buying area is achieved. I'm also thinking at going into certain blue chips again: one is the holding company that I mentioned before and another that is into power.

Composition:
GMA7 = 19%
TUNA = 13%
WEB = 11%
Odd-lots = 3%

Portfolio invested: 46%
Cash: 54%

July 21 and 22 trades

PSEi was trying to mimic how Dow behaved--lots of choppiness. Both markets were experiencing some toppish signals as evidenced by lower value turnover despite in an upward trend. PSEi is yet to test the recent high of 2,626, while the Dow was already testing 8,900-ish.

PSEi was up by 19 points today to 2,612 and was led (again) by Lopez stocks, mainly MER and First Philippine Holdings (FPH), which registered a whopping Php162 million and Php60 million worth of net foreign buying, respectively. Total market turnover of Php2.8 billion was a little bit wanting for me. This just meant that there were lesser aggressive buyers today than yesterday or last week as we are approaching the resistance. Breadth was still good though with the advancers outnumbering the decliners 85 to 33 with 55 unchanged. We were net foreign buying overall of Php162 million today (MER coincidence?).

MER closed 199 today on huge volume after hitting a high of 200. Rumor mill was speculating that Ramon S. Ang (RSA, for short), president of San Miguel Corp. (SMC/B), might be enticed now to sell its MER holdings to MVP at this "spectacular" price. :)

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I got my documentary stamp tax refund today, which added 1.5% to my year-to-date return. :)

I realized that I was whipsawed by LC the other day (refer to my previous post) after massive selling by Felipe Yap-associated brokers. So I bought this back up at a much higher cost of 0.245 instead. :( But at least I was able to ride this one. It broke out of 0.25 resistance today confirming the flag pattern (resistance was also the 100-week moving average). LC closed today at 0.28 resistance on big volume. I expect this to hurdle this resistance tomorrow barring any unforeseen circumstances. Refer to my technical analysis below (click to enlarge):

LC daily:



LC weekly (cup and handle pattern still intact):



The holding firm that I was monitoring (refer to my previous post) was a bit shy these two days. It might test previous resistance first to confirm breakout. I'll keep my eye on this one.

I also bought a ton of NiHAO Mineral Resources (NI) the other day at 8.6 due to strength and breakout from previous resistance of 8.5. I'm still holding onto this one today. We might taste some wall on the 10th to 11.5th floors.

NI daily:



I disposed off more than 50% of my holdings of MEGA-heavy MEG at 1.08 to transfer some to Alliance Tuna (TUNA) at 1.62. Macquarie seems still has a lot of bullets to pepper hapless MEG investors like me. :( Selling to buy MER and FPH? Macquarie were top buyers of these two today (this broker was associated to MVP before. Hmm...). Buying of TUNA was based purely on breakout of 1.60 strong resistance. But we might experience some selling towards 1.68-1.70 as seen in the chart below:

TUNA daily:



I'm still holding on to the rest of my holdings. PAX looks interesting. I expect this to erupt soon as there were signs of accumulation on going. :)

Composition:
NI = 27%
PAX = 16%
TUNA = 13%
MEG = 13%
LC = 11%
WEB = 11%
Odd-lots = 3%
*I broke my cardinal rule of not to hold more than 5 stocks at a time. I guess I'm just bullish (for now). :)

Portfolio invested: 95%
Cash: 5%

Somebody didn't want to have her picture taken

Who's she? Why is she camera-shy? :)

Answer:

... Because it's her birthday today! Happy birthday Kayla_wonders!

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Trades for the day:

I dumped all my LC as Lolo (Felipe Yap, majority owner of LC and stockbroker) didn't want to cooperate. :( Good thing I still profited from it. :) I'll be keen to buy this back again if opportunity arises. I'm still holding on to the rest of my stocks. I'm looking at one holding company today. Technically speaking, it's a very good buy! Let's see tomorrow. :)

PSEi did a great move today coupled with strong volume. Big foreign buying is cornered by Lopez stocks and some properties. Heavy net foreign sellers were present in banking. Market is still intact to retest again the recent high of 2,626. European markets are up by close to 2% and Dow Futures by 0.71% as of this writing. Oil and gold are up 2%! Time to brim up your cars!

Composition:
MEG = 32%
PAX = 16% (very disappointed)
WEB = 12%
Odd-lots = 3%

Portfolio invested: 63%
Cash: 37%

July 15 and 16 trades

The Dow went up by 1% yesterday afternoon (US time) after Nouriel Roubini's "rosier" US outlook. It traded mostly flat in the morning. The Dow is now at 8,712 as of yesterday, which has confirmed the negation of the bearish head and shoulders pattern that I was saying on my July 14 post. It looks poised to test the resistance again in the area of 8,850. What worries me a bit is the volume.

On the local front, we're enjoying a long weekend. No trading today because of tropical storm "Isang," which caused the curtailment of governmental work. So since there was no central bank work, therefore there were no clearing facilities, and no trading. :( Good thing was that the PSEi confirmed the 2,500 breakout with volume and good breadth. Weekly volume increased from Php12 billion last week to Php12.3 billion this week (sans the MER block trade on four trading days only). Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) now showed a buy signal. We might test 2,626 pretty soon. :)

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I increased my holdings on LC by 25%. I'm pretty happy with this one though it's now experiencing some resistance due to the 130 and 200-week moving averages. My average cost is 0.214. :)

I bought some Metro Pacific Investment Corp. (MPI) thinking it will rise very soon as it was near the up trend support line. It did for a while, but was met by a brick wall at 6, and was sold down to 5.7. I decided to cut it one fluctuation lower than my cost as I don't think it's going anywhere for now. :(

I sold PAX but buying it again at a higher price. :( Man! This is hard to time. My hunch is that a (big?) move is coming.

I got a truckload of Megaworld Corp. (MEG) also, but it seems that the investors were experiencing some indecision as evidenced by the doji. I realized afterwards that I had overexposed myself on this one. :( But with interest at all time low, I can't think of any way that this will not benefit property developers. Besides, OFW remittances are at record highs. :)

Composition:
MEG = 32%
LC = 25%
PAX = 15%
WEB = 11%
Odd-lots = 3%

Portfolio invested: 87%
Cash: 13%

Of Cupcakes and Muffins

I've been blogging about the stock markets for quite some time now. My mind just needs a break from being a frustrated analyzer. Ahh... What break could be better than to write about the ultimate analysis of cupcakes versus muffins?! Haha! Just kidding. I'm not in the mood to over analyze their differences for now. But, interestingly, according to this site I saw, a cupcake is defined as "a small cake, the size of an individual portion, baked in a cup-shaped mold," whereas the muffin is defined as "a small, cup-shaped quick bread, often sweetened."

Kayla_wonders and I had let our taste buds try Little Miss Muffin Cafe last Saturday. And to my surprise, according to the owners, there are indeed differences between cupcakes and muffins. I learned something new that day. Some delectable muffins they're offering (click to enlarge):




Regular muffins Php25 each; Petite muffins (partially hidden) Php10 each


Aside from that, they also offer rice toppings, desserts and other meals:


Here's what I ordered -- the Little Miss Muffin Red Healthy Linguine for only Php85. Not only it tastes great, it's seasoned with a healthy dose of tomatoes too!

Kayla_wonders is a bit Filipina that day as she took the very native Adobo Flakes with rice garnished with fresh tomatoes and salted egg, plus a complimentary drink:


All these for only Php110! Oops! Don't be fooled by that drink that was half glass empty (we were just too curious that had few sips prior to taking this picture :) ).


For those who love food-related souvenirs, they're selling some polymer clay gift items too, care of Pumpkin Beads Gift Shop. Visit that site as well for more items on sale at very affordable prices. See? Not only you got the chance to satisfy your palates, you can also bring home souvenirs that will surely make you crave for more food! Haha. Sneak peak of an item on sale:


Cuppy-06 Bag Charm


Here is our photo together with the owners of the said cafe:


From left: Me, Shirley, Kayla_wonders and Joel

Not bad if you're going to ask us. It's definitely worth coming back (it's my second time around to be honest). :)



Remember the name. It's located at 1311 Padre Algue corner Alvarado Extension Streets, adjacent to Chiang Kai Shek College (High School building), Tondo, Manila. They're open Mondays to Saturdays 9 AM till 7 PM.

July 14 trades

Dow Jones jumped by 2.3% to 8,332 last night on positive remarks by analysts on the financial sector. Could this have negated the head and shoulders pattern (neckline was 8,200)?

PSEi tried to follow suit reaching a high of 2,514 mid-trading day, but people were on "sell-on-rally" mode once again. Index hit a low of 2,484 before closing just 9 points higher than yesterday to 2,492. Some excitement brought to us by Lepanto Mining Corp. (LC/LCB) due to "revived" rumors of Manny Pangilinan's (MVP) buy-in. LC and LCB shot up by 29% and 25%, respectively, on big volume particularly LC. Wealth Securities (code: 269) was the biggest buyer of the said securities today. Sympathy play trickled in to the rest of Felipe Yap stocks (Manila Mining [MA/MAB]) and other mining issues as well.

We saw today also the block trade of MER amounting to Php20 billion, which was the block purchased by MVP from the Lopezes at Php90 per share.

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I dumped BPC and SMCB today at a minimal loss because I think they were toppish. But I was whipsawed once again, this time by BPC. :( Some big buying by Macquarie and Regis on BPC brought it to close on its high at 2.42! Sigh. :( Thank God, I was able to hitch a significant portion of my portfolio on LC. :D It closed on its high at 0.225 (bid price) with gargantuan volume. I expect this to gap up tomorrow and continue its ascent. Technical analysis of LC below (click to enlarge):

Daily:


Weekly:


We can expect some resistance towards 0.25 then 0.28. Weekly Cup and Handle pattern points to 0.36.

I'm still holding on to WEB and PAX. Technical analysis of WEB and PAX below (click to enlarge):

WEB Daily:


WEB Weekly:


WEB broke out from 0.0525 the other day. Price target is 0.06 to 0.0625 based on uptrend channel and weekly Cup and Handle pattern.

PAX Daily:


I'm disappointed with PAX to be honest though this is still within the pennant pattern. Bolliger bands are contracting, which is a sign that a major move is coming soon. Bull or bear? That's the question.

Composition:
LC = 21%
WEB = 13%
PAX = 11%
Odd-lots = 4%

Portfolio invested: 49%
Cash: 51%

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Incidentally, tomorrow is my dad's 57th birthday. Advanced happy birthday dad! I'm glad that you're trying to live a healthier lifestyle now. :D

July 13 trades

PSEi respected the 2,500 resistance today. But it seems that I succumb to the temptation of buying some Benpres Holdings Corp. (BPC) and PhilWeb (WEB). For BPC, I think breakout was confirmed this morning with accompanying volume, but it seems there's an impending resistance at 2.40 above. Hmm... Initially, I was just to day-trade this stock, but it seems to have lost some steam towards the end of the day. So I just decided to hold on to this one.

As for WEB, I was really intrigued by it's strength today coupled with big volume as well. Looks like it has finally broke out of its consolidation. Big buyers today are Solar and Belson. The special stockholders' meeting will be coming soon!

I'm still holding on to my other stocks.

Composition:
BPC = 22%
SMCB = 17%
WEB = 13%
PAX = 12%
Odd-lots = 4%

Portfolio invested: 68%
Cash: 32%

Got bored today...

I didn't do anything today; I just watched our listless market whipsawing here and there. We're nearing 2,500 already! I was initially tempted to day trade Oriental Peninsula Resources (ORE), but decided to withhold my itchy finger. Whew! :)

Hindsight:

I have to admit it was my greed that prevented me from riding SCC.



I wanted to buy at 31 because I thought it would fill the gap before bouncing because it was already oversold. But it didn't. 31.50 was the most recent low, and I missed it by just a fluctuation! ARRRGGGGHHHH!!!!!!! That's 27% down the drain!

Crappy day trades

I have nothing much to comment today except that the market was led by MER again and many "basura" stocks (third liners). Pretty boring day for me except for that I lost some while day trading--you guess it right--MER! :( OK, I did regret not buying this yesterday, now I regret even more that I made a crappy day trade. I'm still a newbie in day trading, because usually after the time I sold my holdings, that's the time it will rise. Arrrgghhh!!! Good thing I just lost a little. I need to read about this.

I was supposed not to buy anything today due to my bearishness, but it seems like that our market was a bit resilient. Got some PAX again (Oh no! Am I falling in love with this stock? Not good.) and San Miguel B (SMCB) today. I was intrigued at the ability of PAX to whipsaw people, but pennant is still intact. Buyers have slightly picked up today, but were met with a wall of sellers towards 2.60. I was hoping that PAX will return to the limelight again. It seems that we might have a third liner frenzy soon based on what I saw today. :)

The reason why I got SMCB was that it bounced off the 57 uptrend line support two days ago with even better volume today, and because of the MER-SMC connection play. Though this is less volatile than MER, I'm at peace as I know I won't get whipsawed here and there. :)

Dow Jones Futures up by 0.55% as of this writing. Gold seemed to have broken down of US$916 last night. USD is very weak against Yen.

Composition:
SMCB = 17%
PAX = 12%
Odd-lot stocks = 4%

Portfolio invested: 33%
Cash: 67%

July 8 trades

OK. What I find so liberating in the market today was that Liberty Telecom (LIB) stockholders are finally liberated (all puns intended)! From the previous price of just 0.20 about 3 years ago, this stock opened at 1.50 and devouring every single seller mercilessly up to 3.05 in just about 10 minutes from the opening before closing at 2.95. Most of the trades were done around 2.85 to 2.95. We should take special note of the block trade at 3.25 amounting to some Php1.9 billion, bringing LIB all the way to the top of the most active stocks of the day. (Thinking out loud: Where did the 50% ceiling go? This stock shot up by MORE THAN 1000% today!)

Aside from LIB stealing the limelight, it has been a pretty boring day. PSEi went down by 10 points on a measly Php1.5 billion turnover (sans the LIB block trade). I guess it was just that many are on a "wait and see" mode these days. Below is my technical analysis of PSEi (click to enlarge):



PSEi is hugging the uptrend support line for a few days already. With diminishing volume, I'm really wary about this. Resistance is still pegged at 2500, while support is at around 2,440. If we'll see a convincing breakout soon, I expect this market to test 2,626 again. If it will breakdown, we can see some ample support below at 2,350 (previous low), 2,300 (38.1% retracement), and 2,200 (50% retracement and 65-day moving average).

I can't accurately say where we're heading moving forward, but taking cue from the US markets, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which broke down from the neckline (at 8,200) of the head and shoulders pattern last night, I'm a bit bearish now. You can refer to the the intraday charts of DJIA on the right part of this blog. Moreover, RSI of PSEi is now below (and testing) the 60 mark, which was also once a resistance.

Due to my bearish mood, I sold all my positions today, except for the odd-lot stocks I have. Odd-lot stocks are those stocks below the normal number of shares required for trading, so I can't sell it (for now). I sold all my PX at 7.5 only to see it go higher towards the end of the day. :( Anyway, a profit is still a profit. Got rid of PAX as well at 2.42. Admittedly I got whipsawed here. I thought it's going to breakdown already by the movement of the price (refer to my analysis on my previous post). But just to give me a peace of mind, I decided to sell even though pennant is still intact not taking into consideration the trip down to 2.36 at some point of the day. Let's see tomorrow what will happen. PAX hit a high of 2.48 on measly volume before closing unchanged at 2.44.

I'm dumbfounded at MER today. It seems that it's not respecting its resistance (closed at 169 today). There must be something brewing with MER and other Lopez stocks. I didn't enter this again. Hopefully I won't regret it tomorrow. :)

Composition:
Odd-lot stocks = 4%

Cash: 96%


** By the way, heard that Semirara Mining Corp. (SCC) won the Calaca Power Plant bidding over Banpu today. Tune in for the news!

Blog features update

Hey guys! Thanks for visiting my blog. I included and updated some features in my blog such as
the ShoutMix Chat, the USD to Peso (and other major currencies, and vice versa) currency converter care of Oanda, some selected intraday charts of major stock indices (though PSEi is not a "major" index, but I love my own :P) compliments of Yahoo! Finance, some breaking news care of Google News, my blog list, and my recent visitors.

Just post your comments in the ShoutMix Chat. Feel free to suggest anything that will improve this blog site. It will be greatly appreciated. The intraday charts are "clickable." Of course, don't forget to check the other blogs as well in my blog list and the blogs of my recent visitors. I'm sure they're really helpful as well. :)

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I'll post my trades for today later. :)

Learning experience

Blogging is really new to me. Now I have to test something in my blog site so as to check if it does work. Please bear with me. :)

Undergoing MyBlogLog Verification

July 7 trades

Market seems to have bounced from support since yesterday, but volume of both days were a bit anemic. Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index (PSEi) went up by close to 1% to 2,472 today but in only Php1.6 billion volume. That means, less and less buyers were willing to bid up the prices especially now that the 2,500 psychological resistance is near. Major contributors to this ascent were MER and Ayala Corp. (AC), which contributed 9 and 5 points, respectively.

I liquidated (or sold, cashing out) some of my stock holdings today. I managed to sell MER at 160 near the open thinking the resistance of 161 will hold. Well, in the end, it didn't. MER managed to hit a high of 165 before closing to 161. Anyway, my gut feel tells me that this was already "toppish" as trade volume from 162 to 165 were a bit thin and MER was now testing the resistance of its uptrend channel. Anyway, at the end of the day I would like to thank the Lord for this timely blessing especially now that He knew my family is in debt. :) MER technical analysis below (click to enlarge):



I cut APO at 1.18 thinking it will not go anywhere, and might even possibly go down once the market corrects. My cost was 1.30, but good thing I only had minimal exposure there. :)

I managed to hitch a ride on PX this morning at 7.3. Volume is still there, so I'm holding this for now but only for a quick flip. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 75 already which is already overbought. But based on previous RSI levels, we might encounter some resistance at 80 levels. So I think there's still some room to go up (hopefully). Technical analysis of PX below (click to enlarge):



I'm still holding on to PAX even though it was weaker today (minimal volume only). Pennant is still intact. I set my stops (or cut loss or selling point) at 2.40 as this is the breakdown point of the pennant pattern. Resistance still holds at 2.60-2.70. It needs strong volume to break this out. Technical analysis of PAX below (click to enlarge):



Composition:
PX = 24%
PAX = 23%
Odd-lot stocks = 4%

Portfolio invested: 51%
Cash: 41%

July 6 trades

The market started in the doldrums except for the last hour of trading. I posted some "barat" (very cheap) bids for Philex (PX) and PhilWeb (WEB). As expected, it didn't hit. :( So I decided to raise my Good-till-Canceled (GTC) bid for PX to 7.3 towards the end of trading, but remain unmatched by the time of closing. I decided to cancel my order for WEB as it looks like it was "artificially" being bought up to 0.0525. PX looked to have confirmed the breakout last week with matching good volume, so hopefully I could still catch this boat. I switched my canceled WEB order to Paxys (PAX) at 2.46, which seems like to have formed a pennant pattern.

I'm still holding some Meralco (MER), which I bought at 145 last Friday because it's consolidating at it's highs (or seems like a flag pattern to me). MER is doing 153 today. Yipee! I'm still stuck though with some odd-lots. I'm looking to cut Anglo Philippine Holdings (APO) tomorrow.

Composition:
MER = 29%
PAX = 23%
APO = 7%
Odd-lot stocks = 4%

Portfolio invested: 63%
Cash: 37%

First!

Wow! I can't believe I was able to start a blog site. My friends know me as a-not-so-avid-fan of writing. Good thing I'm fond of trading though. Hopefully I could kick myself into blogging of what I'm trading. :P

I've been trading the Philippine stock market since 2004. So far, I had experienced good times and bad ones as well (who didn't?). 2008 was very memorable, because I lost a lot. Well, at least I could say that I paid my tuition to learn the ropes of market trading. :)